Have you ever considered that Variance in Sport Trading could affect your performance? In this article I will guide you through my experience in order to get better understanding of the concept of Variance.
Theory and practice are equally important. I understood this from the early days of my career and always keep it in mind.
The genuine challenge lies in striking the right balance, and achieving this wasn’t automatic for me.
At the age of 16, during my high school years, I developed a deep passion for philosophical thought. In particular the captivating philosophies of Heraclitus and Kant. However, soon after finishing high school, I found myself already saturated with theoretical knowledge and ready to get into action. I started working right away, effectively abandoning a university path I had pursued with little conviction.
The reality is that theory lacks substance without practical experimentation. At the same time, experimentation is much more effective with a solid theoretical foundation.
All of this became immediately clear to me when I encountered the concept of variance in 2018. It marked a significant turning point in my career as a Sports Trader.
Substantial changes happened, particularly in how I managed variations and periodic instability.
What is meant by variance in Sport Trading
Wikipedia defines variance as a statistical measure that quantify the variability of the values taken by the variable itself. To be specific, it measures how much they deviate “quadratically” from the arithmetic mean or expected value.
The term “variance” was introduced in 1918 by Ronald Fisher and has over time replaced the designation of “quadratic standard deviation” used by Karl Pearson.
In practice, variance is a function that defines the periodic fluctuations from the mean values and is a fundamental concept in Sports Trading.
Yes, because the variance mathematically determines the existence of variability concerning expected values (both positive and negative), even in the absence of technical errors.
It’s self-evident that in football, when we assert that fortunate and unfortunate episodes tend to balance out over the course of a year, we are indirectly referencing the concept of variance.
Before learning this concept, I often found myself excessively suffering on a psychological level by unfortunate events. I did not accept and did not understand them (I even worse labeled them as my mistakes. With this emotional rigidity, I ended up influencing the quality of my immediate subsequent decisions.
Consequently, my overall performance suffered, and I became ensnared in a vicious cycle of cause and effect. Instead, the awareness in the long run, supported by a mathematical function, changed my perspective significantly.
It has shifted my evaluation, and therefore my mindset, from my daily results to my actions.
Evaluating choices and decisions
From the day I discovered the concept of variance in sport trading, I introduced a numerical evaluation (ranging from 1 to 10) into my database on the quality of my decision, regardless of the outcome.
I usually carry out this evaluation the day after the event, with a clear mind, so as to be as unconditioned as possible.
This evaluation helps me periodically analyze the quality of my decision-making processes. It helps me understand how close I am to the strategic model I have set for myself. Furthermore, it allows me to self-critically acknowledge occasions where the result was positive despite an objectively wrong choice and vice versa.
When we are involved in the process, we tend to give excessive importance to negative variance (unlucky incidents) compared to positive variance, sometimes taking credit that we don’t deserve for a positive outcome.
Experience helps us recognize how useful it is to be honest with ourselves. Objective data, in other hand help us improve and grow, both in success and failure.
This is how the ability to recognize variance becomes one of the most important skills for improving your performance. As I’ve mentioned previously, I consider the mental approach to be the cornerstone of this activity.
It’s becoming clear that any aspect aimed at stabilizing and strengthening psychological balance assumes an invaluable aspect.
This is precisely where variance enters the equation! The capacity to recognize it, to acknowledge it, and to manage it effectively.
